Right. So here is my team for this year. Out of respect to my league members, I’m not going to post everyone’s picks, though I’ll talk about a few of them as they relate to mine.
I picked this team for a 10-team rotisserie league, with basically standard scoring except that we count OBP and holds in addition to average and saves.
My overall strategy going into this draft was fairly straightforward. In general, I lean towards players with a higher OBP. However, in the past this has led me to have teams that do very well in runs scored, steals, and OBP, but weak in HR and RBI. So I started by ranking players using a variant of the “tiers” strategy described by CBSsports.com’s Scott White, highlighting players projected to have an OBP of .371 or higher (last year’s winning OBP).
For some strange reason, the computer gods deigned to give me the first pick. After my initial moment of glee, I recognized the mixed blessing of having the first pick. Sure I got to draft A-Rod. But then I would have to sit on my hands for 19 picks while a lot of good players dropped off the board. Then I’d get two back-to-back picks, but then the pattern would repeat itself. Every 19 picks, I get two.
So, with commentary, here are my picks.
Round 1 (#1): Alex Rodriguez
No real surprise here. I briefly considered, just for argument’s sake, the possibility of David Wright. Couldn’t do it, even if I seriously believed in the contract year theory.
Round 2(#20): Brandon Phillips (2B CIN)
Round 3(#21): Robinson Cano (2B NYY)
The first two rounds of the draft saw the middle infield go very quickly… particularly shortstops (Ramirez, Reyes, and Rollins were all gone) – and Chase Utley was the #9 pick. It was pretty clear that the quality at second base would be gone by the next chance I had to pick. So I grabbed both of these players, and took care of my MI/2B positions.
Round 4(#40): C.C. Sabathia (SP CLE)
Round 5(#41): Carlos Guillen (1B DET)
Approaching these picks, it looked as though Jeter might be available, but he was taken with the 36th pick. This cleared out most of the quality at that position. Luckily, Guillen still has SS eligibility in our league, and had him in my shortstops group, so I happily picked him. However, the computer slotted him in at 1B, which to my chagrin, I didn’t notice until a few rounds later. More about this later.
Going into the draft, I wanted a 1# and #2 starting pitcher. After that, I figured the quality would level off enough to make “tiering” ineffective. Picching went quickly in our draft – Santana (#8), Webb (#19), Verlander (#22), Beckett (#23), Dan Haren (#34), and even a pair of relievers -- Papelbon (#25) and K-Rod (#38) -- were all gone. C.C. Sabathia was the last first tier pitcher available. No problem here – I had him last year, and I think he’s up for a better year this one than last.
Round 6(#60): Brian McCann (C ATL)
Round 7(#61): Chipper Jones (3B ATL)
I like having a strong catcher, and there were only five I was willing to draft: Martinez, Martin, Mauer, Posada, and McCann. Mauer was actually the first catcher drafted (#14), and then one team took both Martinez (#32) and Martin (#49) on successive picks. At this point, I had the option of picking either Posada or McCann.
R | H | 1B |2B | 3B | HR | RBI| BB| KO| SB| CS | BA | OBP | SLG
McCann 51 | 136 | 80 | 38 | 0 | 18 | 92 | 35 | 74 | 0 | 1 | 0.2698 | 0.3200 | 0.4524
Posada 91 | 171 | 108 | 42 | 1 | 20 | 90 | 74 | 98 | 2 | 0 | 0.3379 | 0.4261 | 0.5435
Based on last year’s stats, this should have been a no-brainer. Yet for some reason, I pulled the trigger on McCann. Why? Probably because I’ve had him on my team for the last two seasons – coincidentally, picked him up at the start of his first full MLB season (which he ended hitting .332, with 24HR, 93 RBI, and an OBP of 0.3882). He’s a solid catcher – clearly one of the top catchers in MLB – but Posada’s the better player, and I should have picked him. Seems that I have a soft spot for former players… witness my picking of Sabathia.
Round 8(#80): Bobby Abreu (OF NYY)
Round 9(#81): John Smoltz (SP ATL)
By this point, I had noticed that the outfield pickings were getting pretty slim. So I grabbed Abreu for the outfield, and John Smoltz for my #2 started. I like reliable, and he falls into that category. Lackey was still available, but I didn’t grab him because I’ve been burned in the past on the mid-season return from the DL. He was taken with the 84th pick by a player who auto picked the entire team.
Round 10(#100): Corey C. Hart (OF MIL)
Round 11(#101): Todd Helton (1B COL)
I was surprised that Helton was still available at this point. He won’t do as much for batting as he has in the past, but I’m looking for him to pump up my OBP and hit about 90 RBI.
Round 12(#120): Ben Sheets (SP MIL)
Round 13(#121): Julio Lugo (SS BOS)
Ben Sheets has been injured so many times, I probably should have avoided him altogether. But none of his injuries are on that glorious arm he has, so maybe – just maybe – he can make it through a season…? Plus having him on my team gives me an excuse to listen to the Brewer broadcast, and Uecker still calls one of the most entertaining games in baseball.
Speaking of players I shouldn’t draft, we have Lugo. By this point, I had noticed that the computer had put Guillen at 1st base, instead of at shortstop where I intend him to reside for the season. Now, petulantly, the computer was requiring me to find a shortstop. I would have liked a shortstop with a reasonable OBP and good run scoring ability. None were available. So I picked Lugo. At least he’ll steal some bases while he negates Helton’s OBP.
Round 14(#140): Johnny Damon (OF NYY)
Round 15(#141): Jason Isringhausen (RP STL)
I wasn’t really intending to pick an all-Yankee team. But Damon was still available, and if he can stay healthy, he’ll be a good value. Izzy was one of the last second-tier relievers available.
Posada 91 | 171 | 108 | 42 | 1 | 20 | 90 | 74 | 98 | 2 | 0 | 0.3379 | 0.4261 | 0.5435
Based on last year’s stats, this should have been a no-brainer. Yet for some reason, I pulled the trigger on McCann. Why? Probably because I’ve had him on my team for the last two seasons – coincidentally, picked him up at the start of his first full MLB season (which he ended hitting .332, with 24HR, 93 RBI, and an OBP of 0.3882). He’s a solid catcher – clearly one of the top catchers in MLB – but Posada’s the better player, and I should have picked him. Seems that I have a soft spot for former players… witness my picking of Sabathia.
Round 8(#80): Bobby Abreu (OF NYY)
Round 9(#81): John Smoltz (SP ATL)
By this point, I had noticed that the outfield pickings were getting pretty slim. So I grabbed Abreu for the outfield, and John Smoltz for my #2 started. I like reliable, and he falls into that category. Lackey was still available, but I didn’t grab him because I’ve been burned in the past on the mid-season return from the DL. He was taken with the 84th pick by a player who auto picked the entire team.
Round 10(#100): Corey C. Hart (OF MIL)
Round 11(#101): Todd Helton (1B COL)
I was surprised that Helton was still available at this point. He won’t do as much for batting as he has in the past, but I’m looking for him to pump up my OBP and hit about 90 RBI.
Round 12(#120): Ben Sheets (SP MIL)
Round 13(#121): Julio Lugo (SS BOS)
Ben Sheets has been injured so many times, I probably should have avoided him altogether. But none of his injuries are on that glorious arm he has, so maybe – just maybe – he can make it through a season…? Plus having him on my team gives me an excuse to listen to the Brewer broadcast, and Uecker still calls one of the most entertaining games in baseball.
Speaking of players I shouldn’t draft, we have Lugo. By this point, I had noticed that the computer had put Guillen at 1st base, instead of at shortstop where I intend him to reside for the season. Now, petulantly, the computer was requiring me to find a shortstop. I would have liked a shortstop with a reasonable OBP and good run scoring ability. None were available. So I picked Lugo. At least he’ll steal some bases while he negates Helton’s OBP.
Round 14(#140): Johnny Damon (OF NYY)
Round 15(#141): Jason Isringhausen (RP STL)
I wasn’t really intending to pick an all-Yankee team. But Damon was still available, and if he can stay healthy, he’ll be a good value. Izzy was one of the last second-tier relievers available.
I'll post the balance of my picks later. As you can see, I've got some good players, but the makings of some problems, which will emerge in the final rounds of the draft.
4 comments:
#1 - David Wright is signed through like 2012? He signed a 6 year contract in 2005 or 2006. ARod's obviously locked up for 10. Not sure what you mean by contract year theory on that one.
#2 - Brandon Phillips as your #2 pick? His 162 game avg is 19 HR, 76 RBI, .262 BA, .306 OBP, .419 SLG.
Was that pick an accident? And Jeter was still out there?
#6 - McCann over Posada? Really? What has McCann ever done? 3
#1) What I meant by "contract year theory" was the idea that a guy who's in the last year of his contract will benefit from the pressure and have a big year. in a sense, ARod was in this situation last year because of his opt-out clause.
Here's an interesting article on players to watch this year who fall into this category.
#2) No, picking Phillips wasn't an accident. As I mentioned, I didn't see much quality remaining at 2nd base by the time the 40th and 41st picks rolled around, so I chose to grab two of a very small group of high-quality 2B. I had Jeter in the same group of SS eligible players as Guillen, Tulowitzki, and Tejada. None of these players had been taken, and I projected that at least one of these players would still be available by pick #40, whereas if I picked Jeter in round #2 or #3, I would have likely been scrambling later for a middle-infielder picking from a rapidly diminishing quality pool. I was quite happy with Guillen as my short. As it turned out, Kinsler was picked with the 26th pick, Brian Roberts went with the 45th pick, after which point no 2B eligible players were chosen until the 9th round.
As far as whether Jeter is more than Phillips, this is a tough argument. Look... he's a great player, the Captain, etc. But he's also 33, had some knee problems last year, and, in the end, only hit 12HR, 73 RBI, and stole 15. I know "only" is a fascinating word to use with these stats. But I think he's on the tail end of his career, while Phillips is on the rise.
#6 - Dealt with this one already. I should have picked Posada.
Jeter is not in the twilight of his career, he is a stud player who is two years removed from a season where he should have won the AL MVP if it were not for anti-New York bias in the baseball media.
"Jeter is not in the twilight of his career, he is a stud player who is two years removed from a season where he should have won the AL MVP if it were not for anti-New York bias in the baseball media."
Fair enough. "Twilight" is the wrong word here. I think that Jeter's going to have a very long and glorious downhill ride as he finishes his career. He may play six, eight more years -- maybe more. He'll be a stud player for some time. It's gonna be a great trip down that hill, but he's over it.
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