This is the second part of my draft analysis, which covers picks 16-29. I discussed the first 15 picks in an earlier post.
First permit me 4 sentences of whining and moaning...
I have to say that going into this part of the draft, I had expected a 24-hour break after the 15th pick, which I had intended to use to analyze my team and plan some intelligent picks. The bulk of the group decided to press on -- I didn't protest, and so I made some dumb picks. Nevertheless, I pulled the trigger and picked them, so I have to own responsibility and either trade ‘em or dump ‘em. In any case, I’m really not unhappy with the individual players – but I am less than pleased with the overall bunch. Waah.
My picks
My picks
Round 16(#160): Matt Cain (SP SF)
Round 17(#161): Willy Taveras (OF COL)
Cain’s one of those pitchers that fall into the sleeper category. He probably won’t get a ton of run support, so I’m going to have to be careful about when I put him in. Taveras I grabbed because I was still short two outfielders, and I was looking for guys who could steal.
Round 18(#180): Dustin McGowan (SP TOR)
Round 19(#181): J.D. Drew (OF BOS)
McGowan had a pretty good finish to the season (WHIP was 1.143 post All-Star break), and with the Jays’ lineup, he should make for a good spot starter, with the potential to break out. Drew? He’ll help with OBP, and maybe knock in 10-15 HR if I’m lucky and he can stay healthy.
Round 20(#200): B.J. Ryan (RP TOR)
Round 21(#201): Heath Bell (RP SD)
Going into this round, I figured it was time to draft a set-up guy. I got absolutely housed in holds last year, so I had determined to pick up one of the relatively small number of reliable set-up men in the draft. I identified Shields, Rafael Betancourt, and Jonathan Broxton as people I wouldn’t mind having. Unfortunately, just as I queued these players up, they dropped off the board, being taken with picks #196, #198, and #199. This was the only expletive I uttered during the evening, but it was a loud one. So I picked up Heath Bell. After watching the Sox-A’s game Monday, I’m surprised I didn’t pick Okajima, who went with six picks later.
Ryan… well, let’s just say he was a long shot. Call it a roll of the dice.
Round 22(#220): Jeremy Accardo (RP TOR)
Round 23(#221): Randy Johnson (SP ARI)
Here’s another roll of the dice. If the Big Unit makes it back, he’s a high value pick. Accardo I got to back up Ryan.
Round 24(#240): Daniel Cabrera (SP BAL)
Round 25(#241): Jerry Owens (OF CHW)
The dice keep rolling. If Cabrera could ever dial it in, he’ll be unhittable. As far as Owens… a the time of the draft he was looking pretty good – there were some groin problems, but he was playing well and looked like he had put the injury behind him. As of today (3/26), he’ll be starting the season on the DL because of a tear.
Round 26(#260): Hiroki Kuroda (SP LA)
Round 27(#261): Clay Buchholz (SP BOS)
Once again, I go with the unproven Japanese League player. Kuroda had an insane 2006 season playing for the Hiroshima Carp, with a ridiculous 1.85 ERA and a 1.004 WHIP. He’s reported to be a serious groundball pitcher with really good control. Buchholz, at the time of the draft, looked like he’s be opening the season in Pawtucket. I’m not fooled, and neither are the other 76% of CBSsports.com fantasy owners who own him. He’ll be making the 50 minute trip up I-95 to Boston sooner rather than later.
Round 28(#280): Gil Meche (SP KC)
Round 29(#281): Brandon Lyon (RP ARI)
Meche could be a lot worse. Sure, he’ll not get much of any run support… but he’ll reliably start, and he did improve over the course of the season. As far as Lyon… I’m guessing he’ll get a bunch of saves and / or holds, but I also suspect I’ll pay for those with a loss or two unless he stops screwing around with his fastball and throws the good breaking stuff that got him 35 holds last year. I’m keeping a close eye on him.
Overall, I have to say that I’m not too happy with my team. I met my goal of drafting a more solid infield than I’ve had in previous years – but I also missed a few opportunities to draft players such as Posada who would have made a better contribution to my team. Next year, I’ll go into the draft aware of my tendency to pick “known” players. I also did a poor job of drafting my reserve, ending up with a huge stable of pitchers, several of whom I’ll have to let go in order to back up my batting. Right now I have a team that I’d project to finish in the middle of my league. I’ll need to make a few trades to improve my team and make it competitive.
Round 17(#161): Willy Taveras (OF COL)
Cain’s one of those pitchers that fall into the sleeper category. He probably won’t get a ton of run support, so I’m going to have to be careful about when I put him in. Taveras I grabbed because I was still short two outfielders, and I was looking for guys who could steal.
Round 18(#180): Dustin McGowan (SP TOR)
Round 19(#181): J.D. Drew (OF BOS)
McGowan had a pretty good finish to the season (WHIP was 1.143 post All-Star break), and with the Jays’ lineup, he should make for a good spot starter, with the potential to break out. Drew? He’ll help with OBP, and maybe knock in 10-15 HR if I’m lucky and he can stay healthy.
Round 20(#200): B.J. Ryan (RP TOR)
Round 21(#201): Heath Bell (RP SD)
Going into this round, I figured it was time to draft a set-up guy. I got absolutely housed in holds last year, so I had determined to pick up one of the relatively small number of reliable set-up men in the draft. I identified Shields, Rafael Betancourt, and Jonathan Broxton as people I wouldn’t mind having. Unfortunately, just as I queued these players up, they dropped off the board, being taken with picks #196, #198, and #199. This was the only expletive I uttered during the evening, but it was a loud one. So I picked up Heath Bell. After watching the Sox-A’s game Monday, I’m surprised I didn’t pick Okajima, who went with six picks later.
Ryan… well, let’s just say he was a long shot. Call it a roll of the dice.
Round 22(#220): Jeremy Accardo (RP TOR)
Round 23(#221): Randy Johnson (SP ARI)
Here’s another roll of the dice. If the Big Unit makes it back, he’s a high value pick. Accardo I got to back up Ryan.
Round 24(#240): Daniel Cabrera (SP BAL)
Round 25(#241): Jerry Owens (OF CHW)
The dice keep rolling. If Cabrera could ever dial it in, he’ll be unhittable. As far as Owens… a the time of the draft he was looking pretty good – there were some groin problems, but he was playing well and looked like he had put the injury behind him. As of today (3/26), he’ll be starting the season on the DL because of a tear.
Round 26(#260): Hiroki Kuroda (SP LA)
Round 27(#261): Clay Buchholz (SP BOS)
Once again, I go with the unproven Japanese League player. Kuroda had an insane 2006 season playing for the Hiroshima Carp, with a ridiculous 1.85 ERA and a 1.004 WHIP. He’s reported to be a serious groundball pitcher with really good control. Buchholz, at the time of the draft, looked like he’s be opening the season in Pawtucket. I’m not fooled, and neither are the other 76% of CBSsports.com fantasy owners who own him. He’ll be making the 50 minute trip up I-95 to Boston sooner rather than later.
Round 28(#280): Gil Meche (SP KC)
Round 29(#281): Brandon Lyon (RP ARI)
Meche could be a lot worse. Sure, he’ll not get much of any run support… but he’ll reliably start, and he did improve over the course of the season. As far as Lyon… I’m guessing he’ll get a bunch of saves and / or holds, but I also suspect I’ll pay for those with a loss or two unless he stops screwing around with his fastball and throws the good breaking stuff that got him 35 holds last year. I’m keeping a close eye on him.
Overall, I have to say that I’m not too happy with my team. I met my goal of drafting a more solid infield than I’ve had in previous years – but I also missed a few opportunities to draft players such as Posada who would have made a better contribution to my team. Next year, I’ll go into the draft aware of my tendency to pick “known” players. I also did a poor job of drafting my reserve, ending up with a huge stable of pitchers, several of whom I’ll have to let go in order to back up my batting. Right now I have a team that I’d project to finish in the middle of my league. I’ll need to make a few trades to improve my team and make it competitive.
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